In March 1876, the New York Times trumpeted the birth of the home entertainment industry. It would be powered by the telephone. It (mostly) never happened. Exactly 134 years later Facebook became the most visited website in the USA, pulling in more visitors than Google. There’s a connection between these facts. We’re learning what the web is really for.

In the rich world, we’re unlikely to solve our obesity epidemic any time soon. Weight gain will change the financial arithmetic of many products and services. Wise companies will innovate to develop propositions that meet the physical, social and identity needs of overweight consumers.

Premature genius is one of the most overlooked challenges of product development. To visualise the problem, think of a change curve. Launch too early and no amount of marketing and development spend will get you to take off. Launch too late and you may not catch up with competitors.